Early Warning Signals Toolbox

A User’s Guide for Detecting Critical Transitions in Time series and Spatial data
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  • Home
  • Theory
    • What is a critical transition?
    • Why should we expect Early Warnings before Critical Transitions?
    • What are Early Warning Signals?
  • Perturbation experiments
  • Time series methods
    • Metric based methods
      • General Steps for Rolling Window Metrics
        • Ensemble example for rolling window metrics
      • Autocorrelation and Spectral properties
      • Detrended fluctuation analysis
      • Variance
      • Skewness and Kurtosis
      • Conditional heteroskedasticity
      • BDS test
    • Model based methods
      • Nonparametric drift-diffusion-jump models
      • Time-varying AR(p) models
      • Threshold AR(p) models
      • Potential analysis
      • Generalized models
  • Spatial indicators
    • Slowing-down based indicators
      • Spatial correlation at lag 1
      • Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT)
    • Variability based indicators
    • Pattern-based indicators
    • Step-by-step analysis for spatial indicators
      • Step 1: Distinguishing periodic from non-periodic patterns
      • Step 2a: Probing spatial early warnings for non-periodic patterns
      • Step 2b: Probing spatial early warnings for periodic patterns
  • Case studies
    • Transition to Extinction due to Photo-inhibition
    • Critical transition in a lake foodweb
    • Paleoclimatic transitions
  • Resources
    • Glossary
    • Bibliography
      • Theory: Reviews and General reading
      • Methods
      • Case studies
      • Other reading
    • Code
  • About the toolbox
    • Aim
    • Who we are
    • Contributors

Theory

What is a critical transition?

Why should we expect Early Warnings before Critical Transitions?

What are Early Warning Signals?

Recent Posts

  • EWS workshop September 2, 2016 (Montpellier, France)
  • Spatial methods paper and update in EWS toolbox
  • EWS package gets into WICI Data challenge finalists!
  • Special issue on early-warnings and regime shifts in journal of Theoretical Ecology
  • early warnings in space in experimental and field data

Links

  • Aquatic Ecology Group, Wageningen University
  • Regime Shifts Database
  • SPARCS
  • Stockholm Resilience Center

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